Russian propagandists rejoice Trump's "Peace initiatives". Russian media monitoring report

We have analyzed how Russian propaganda covers the changing US position on the war in Ukraine and the progress of peace negotiations, using texts from about 1,000 Russian websites and propaganda telegram channels published from January 1 to March 26, 2025.

First expectations from Trump

Despite the fact that Kremlin propaganda was praising Trump's election to the presidency, Russians did not expect any rapid changes in his foreign policy toward Russia.

Russian commentators repeated Trump's phrases about the White House's desire to "stop the war in Ukraine within a few months" but insisted that the paradigm shift would not happen overnight and that the United States would continue to follow the course set by Biden and the Democrats.

Any peace talks will take into account not so much the interests of Ukraine, which, according to propagandists, is fully controlled by the United States, as the interests of Europeans, Washington's close allies.

On January 22, Donald Trump called for an early conclusion of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, threatening to impose new sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to comply with the agreements. The American president emphasized that Russia's economy was in decline because of the war, so he was offering Putin a "very big favor."

This was the first disappointment for some propagandists:

"Trump's statements on Ukraine in the last few days or the first days of his presidency show that he won't be able to achieve peace on Ukraine. He is threatening Russia with new economic sanctions, which is useless. Trump should immediately expel those who advise him to do so. Trump said that Zelensky, in his opinion, wants peace. This is not true. Trump needs to expel those who provide him with this false information. ... The general conclusion of Trump's first days as president: Trump cannot make peace in Ukraine because he is being manipulated by the State Department."

The Russian media have published a huge amount of speculation about Trump's likely plans: plan A, plan B, plan C, and so on, in alphabetical order. For example:

"As a result, according to Trump's plan, all three subjects of the war — Russia, Europe, and Ukraine — will pay a high price, and political conditions for a compromise will soon be created."

First contacts

On February 12, Putin and Trump had a telephone conversation. Propagandists rejoiced that "the policy of demonizing Putin has collapsed... The policy of political isolation of Russia has collapsed... The West is clearly split".

Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov continues to repeat the theses that have recently been popular in the US, that Trump will now really put pressure on both sides to end the war:

"Trump's principles on Ukraine. Humanism. This terrible slaughter must be stopped. Economic benefits. Huge US spending on Ukraine must be stopped. The China card. We must stop pushing Russia into the arms of China, the main competitor of the United States. The European card. This war is Europe's business, so let them pay. The Russian card. Russia has been a great power for many centuries, and we must have good relations with it now. Ukraine is a part of Russia, a geopolitical misunderstanding. Maybe the whole country will become part of Russia. It's a deadlock. There is no hope for Ukraine's victory, so this war is a dead end. It is necessary to get out of it. Personal political gain. It would be nice to get the Nobel Peace Prize for Ukraine. Ideology. Putin is Trump's ideological ally, and almost all of Putin's enemies are Trump's enemies. Personal animosity. Zelensky, Biden, the European Commission — Trump can't stand them all."

These are the main arguments in the Russian media that have been used to justify all of Trump's rhetorical techniques.

Another category of propagandists isn't so sure. In particular, these are big Telegram channels of the so-called war correspondents. Although they are in the service of the Russian state, they represent an active part of Russian society that supports the war and is most concerned about the destruction of Ukraine.

On February 18, negotiations between the US and Russian delegations took place in Saudi Arabia (for more details, see our previous monitoring).

Prior to this meeting, war correspondents doubted its success, claiming that the United States would not betray Ukraine and were only misleading Putin:

"Nobody will give us anything, neither Trump nor the West, neither on a plate nor on a shovel. Russia takes everything either by the right of the strong or in battle."

At the same time, concerns were expressed about the possible consequences of the talks: "

It is unlikely that after tomorrow's meeting, we should expect a detailed 'Trump plan' to end the war. However, the level of our diplomatic relations with America should increase after this conversation. Well... or degrade completely."

The results of the meeting surprised not only the international community, but also the war correspondents. They believed that Putin had outplayed everyone and was now sharing the balance of power with the United States:

"And here in Riyadh they are starting to divide the world, wow!"," Trump made it clear that he was ready to abandon his allies and unite with Putin."

However, the war correspondents continued to worry that the United States would not help realize Russia's main goals in the war against Ukraine, and thus all the sacrifices would be in vain.

Russia's sacred demands

The main demands articulated by propagandists of various ranks, from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to a small telegram channel, mostly remain unchanged for the public. This is the dismantling of Ukraine. The essence of the general rhetoric is best captured by a quote from Kremlin political strategist Sergei Markov:

"And to deceive the Kremlin, the West will talk about territories in the negotiations to hide its main goal: the preservation of the Bandera regime. And Russia's goal should be to eliminate the Bandera-fascist regime."

Along with this, there is fantasizing about the future territorial structure of Ukraine. In some scenarios, Ukraine is fully part of Russia, while in others, it is divided between neighboring states. Exotic but long-propagated options are also proposed:

"Ukraine needs a variant of the Bosnian Accords. A confederation. Russians from East and and South will be friends with Russia. Western Ukrainians — with Hungary and Poland. South Westerns — with Romania or Moldova, as they wish. Kyiv and North Ukrainians — with themselves. The international treaty guarantees the preservation of Ukraine as a confederation."

"Russia's main demand for a peace agreement on Ukraine is simple: it should not be a Minsk-3 type truce that makes a new war inevitable. The US and EU should not come to Russia with Minsk-3. Russia will not agree to it under any circumstances."

In this chaos of ideas, desires, and scenarios that envisage very different ways of destroying Ukraine, the theses of "demilitarization" of Ukraine that started the war are gradually fading into the background in state propaganda, as the main goal is to gain Ukrainian territory.

At the same time, propaganda continues to spin the narrative that Russia seeks peace while Ukraine and Europe are in favor of war "to the last Ukrainian." The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service even produces fake information:

"The intelligence of Ukraine is preparing terrorist attacks in Europe against Russian oppositionists. In order to blame FSB and Putin for these murders and to sharply escalate the involvement of European and NATO countries in the war in Ukraine."

The odor of agreements

In March, the United States held a series of rounds of talks with Russia and Ukraine. On March 18, Trump and Putin spoke by phone, but there were no concrete results.

Newly minted blogger and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev "compared the negotiations on Ukraine to a dinner table."

"The telephone conversation between President Putin and Trump confirmed a well-known opinion — only Russia and America are in the dining room. The menu includes light appetizers such as Brussels sprouts, British fish and chips, and a Parisian rooster. The main dish is a Kyiv cutlet."

On March 25, three days of talks between representatives of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia ended in Riyadh. The talks were supposed to establish a 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure and the Black Sea. As a result of the meeting, the US signed two communiqués —one between the US and Ukraine and one between the US and Russia.

The Russia-US and Ukraine-US communiqués differ. Although both provide for a partial ceasefire, they do not provide for liability for its violation.

The hint of a possible cessation of hostilities in official Russian propaganda and among war correspondents has evoked different emotions.

Official propaganda repeats the words of Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov:

"The Kremlin noted that the Biden administration "wanted to continue the war to the last Ukrainian" and "spent American taxpayers' money on it," while the word "peace" is heard from the mouths of representatives of the current White House. This approach appeals to Moscow."

Russian propaganda is already calling Donald Trump a great leader, and the main enemy is Europe, which is putting spokes in the wheels on the road to peace:

"For many years, we were convinced that the United States was forcing Europe to fight Russia to win the European market. But now we see that the United States is for peace. And Europe is categorically and only for war."

The war correspondents

The Telegram channels of the so-called war correspondents are against any agreements. In their opinion, the current US position and the situation on the battlefield allow Russia to achieve Ukraine's complete surrender, and there is no need to make concessions to the US and Europe to preserve the Zelenskyy regime. In their interpretation, discussing ideas of peace or even a truce allows Ukraine to take advantage of the pause to strengthen and regroup militarily.

That is why war experts of all stripes began to claim that, despite the agreements, the Russian army would continue to destroy Ukrainian army personnel, weapons depots, and industry that works for the Ukrainian army. In other words, they are "not satisfied with the agreement".

A post on the small Telegram channel "Stalin's Falcons" (9 thousand subscribers) about the alleged betrayal and prevention of a truce received more than 2.3 million views:

"We realize that the oligarchs have flown to you from their Dubai hideouts and are selling you the idea of peace and profit. And then they will stab you in the back. We understand that a part of society and the power bloc did not share the ideals of the Special Military Operation and still do not. We understand that there will be costs and losses, and not everyone will live to see the victory. But for patriots, the fate of the Motherland is above all else. At the same time. The Nazi nest has not been destroyed."

This post was also reposted by large Telegram channels of war correspondents, which indicates dissatisfaction with the negotiation process between Russia and the United States.

The question remains how autonomous this dissatisfaction is. On the one hand, the war experts act within the strategy of the entire propaganda system. Therefore, such messages can be directed at staunch supporters of the war to keep them on their toes and convince them that there will be no Minsk agreements or Khasavyurt (an agreement between Russia and an independent Chechnya) in the future, that no agreements will be reached and that Russia needs to continue fighting, despite the presence of elements that favor a quick peace.

On the other hand, the war correspondents represent an active part of Russian society that wants war. Thanks to the war, they have gained popularity and followers and received funds and donations, so the cessation of hostilities may push them to the margins of social and political life.

This can explain why the large telegram channels of the war correspondents did not speak out particularly openly about the negotiations but only reposted the publication mentioned above.

This lack of synchronization in propaganda may be a harbinger of internal contradictions in Russia. The government may eventually find itself in a tightrope. On the one hand, the high human losses in the war and the problems in the economy will push it to peaceful compromises, while on the other hand, an active part of Russian society, represented by the "military officers," will demand the war to the end.

This may also indicate a wait-and-see attitude of the Russian leadership itself. Moscow does not yet see the current negotiations as a path to peace or a truce, so it is not establishing total control over all propaganda sectors to promote a single line.

The situation will change if an appropriate command comes from a single center. If the course of agreement is adopted, all those who express dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's policy in the information field will be deprived of their voices, and critical posts will be deleted.

The material was prepared with the support of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the joint initiative "European Renaissance of Ukraine." It represents the position of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the European Union or the International Renaissance Foundation.

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